Saudi Arabia refuses to bow to pressure to cut oil production

日期:2015-09-02 21:11:31
Saudi arabia oil 03.jpgMarket share continues to be Saudi Arabia’s main concern—and not even $40 oil prices will make it give into peer pressure to cut production.

Major oil producers have been trying to convince Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ biggest producer, to take the lead and cut production to stem the price declines.

But output from the nation instead climbed to about 10.45 million barrels a day in July from 10.1 million in April, according to an estimate from Platts, even though West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil prices are down roughly 15% year to date on the back of a global supply glut.

Venezuela has asked OPEC to hold an emergency meeting and to consider a coordination with non-OPEC Russia to discuss a strategy to stem the recent oil-price rout, The Wall Street Journal reported last week.

Other OPEC members, including Iran, which is set to boost production as sanctions on the country are eased in the wake of a nuclear agreement with the West, have also reportedly pressured the Saudis to lower their output.

Oil prices will move higher if Saudi Arabia makes a sacrifice and cuts its own production—and that would benefit every other producing nation, said Patrick Kerr, owner of private-investment firm The Kerr Organization.

Members have been increasingly worried about the low prices for oil and it shows. In a monthly bulletin released Monday, OPEC said low prices were a “cause for concern” and that there is “no quick fix” for them. OPEC also said it would “protect its own interest.”

“OPEC’s public comments were not published accidentally this week after crude oil plunged below $40 a barrel,” said Taki Tsaklanos, head of research at Secular Investor. “OPEC realizes that $39.50 was the peak of 1980 and 1990—also the top of the previous secular cycle in crude oil.”

WTI crude settled below $39 on Aug. 24, for the first time since Feb. 2009.

“Those price levels are not sustainable for oil producers, as evidenced by last week’s market reaction,” Tsaklanos said. Prices rallied more than 27% during a three-session rally that ended Monday.

Tsaklanos believes that prices below $39.50 is “the area where market share is of secondary importance.”

Then again, maybe not.

Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities, doesn’t believe Saudi Arabia will cut production any time soon.

“Not even at $20—they will not budge alone,” he said. “They are waiting for U.S. production to decline much further,” and that might not happen until next spring. Read: 6 important things to know about cheap oil

U.S. production will eventually decline, but “the damage to Saudi Arabia from [the low oil prices] will be at least as damaging as it seems to U.S. producers,” said Hastings.

Source: MarketWatch

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